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That’s what we’re looking at if a story in the NY Times today comes to fruition. Basically, four very large states (California, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey) are likely moving their primaries to a single, early date. That date would be February 5th in 2008. That would essentially eliminate any smaller campaigns and require that campaigners be well funded up front.

The problem with being well funded up front is that you already have to be a known national quantity. That could eliminate a lot of state governors that would otherwise have a chance to run in the more drawn out process. Three of the last four Presidents came from state government positions and Clinton was a relative unknown. The Clintons and the McCains will obviously benefit from their national exposure while the Vilsacks and the Romneys will have to fight hard to even get recognized and will have a lot of trouble with early fundraising.

These changes will lead to one of two scenarios. One is that both nominees are decided in early February and the Presidential campaign becomes a nine month affair. The other is that two or three national candidates split the vote on the new Super Tuesday and essentially leave the race deadlocked in a West Wing-ish tragic comedy.

I think they are pluses and minuses to one major primary for each party. One in each category is that no-names can’t get nominated. It’s kind of like having a laptop for work, you can take work home and you can take work home. Some no-names go on to be President (Clinton), some go on to be punchlines (Kucinich) but both Clinton and Kucinich had an impact on the race (I voted for Kucinich). Both would likely be eliminated in the future scenario for safer candidates that can raise a hell of a lot of money and put their own fortunes to work in the campaign.

And that is bad for the country as the little guy with big ideas is shut out of the race for the big guy with little ideas. This will further make politics an aristocracy rather than a meritocracy and may lead to really smart people with world-changing ideas being shut out of the process entirely.

And that’s definitely a bad thing.